Understanding The Kentucky Derby For Horse Racing Novices
Saturday, 06 February 2010 09:14
Author: Ross Everett
The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if they're not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.
The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if they're not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.
A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who've won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.
So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.
Don't forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as 'post position' in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won't hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.
Another factor worthy of consideration is the horses lineage and breeding. Start at the beginning"where the horse was born. Most, but not all, serious racehorses are born in Kentucky. If you see a horse in the race that wasnt, forget them. This is not any sort of home field advantage but a result of the concentration of the Thoroughbred horse industry in the state. Over 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been born in Kentucky. Next, consider the horses gender, or more specifically dont consider any entry with a gender other than male. Only eleven horses other than intact males have ever won the race (eight geldings and three fillies). A gelding did win as recently as 2003, when Funny Cide took the roses but again for the newcomer this is an easy way to cut down the horses under consideration. This isnt a gender bias or anything, but for our purposes we can forget about non-male horses.
Don't forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse's breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less--over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980's.
If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.
The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if they're not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.
A true fluency in horse racing takes extensive study, but here are a few concepts that can help anyone better understand and enjoy the Kentucky Derby. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. Since Spectacular Bid won the Derby in 1979, however, you can count the favorites who've won the race on one hand with fingers left over. In other words, the easiest way to pare down the field for a horse racing novice is to simply eliminate the popular favorite from consideration.
So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.
Don't forget to pay attention to the starting position of the horses, known as 'post position' in racing slang. The historical data suggests that a Derby winner is most likely to come from positions 1 through 5, while the outer positions (11 through 20) have produced relatively few winners. This is something of an over simplification, but for the purpose of understanding a single race it won't hurt to just rule out all horses starting in a bad position.
Another factor worthy of consideration is the horses lineage and breeding. Start at the beginning"where the horse was born. Most, but not all, serious racehorses are born in Kentucky. If you see a horse in the race that wasnt, forget them. This is not any sort of home field advantage but a result of the concentration of the Thoroughbred horse industry in the state. Over 80% of Kentucky Derby winners have been born in Kentucky. Next, consider the horses gender, or more specifically dont consider any entry with a gender other than male. Only eleven horses other than intact males have ever won the race (eight geldings and three fillies). A gelding did win as recently as 2003, when Funny Cide took the roses but again for the newcomer this is an easy way to cut down the horses under consideration. This isnt a gender bias or anything, but for our purposes we can forget about non-male horses.
Don't forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse's breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less--over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980's.
If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.
Writer:
Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.
Last Updated ( Saturday, 12 June 2010 07:44 )